TUNIS — As US presidential candidate Joe Biden continues to lead in the polls, foreign powers are preparing for a change in leadership style and policy orientation in the White House.
If some like Iran are pinning their hopes on a change of US leadership, others are fretting over the prospect.
Among those most concerned about a potential change of course in Washington is Turkey, whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has remained on relatively good terms with current US President Donald Trump and had a rocky relationship with the former vice-president.
Whereas Trump has offered little resistance to Erdogan’s foreign policy goals or human rights record, Biden has been a steadfast critic of the Turkish leader, challenging him on everything from his hostility to the Kurds to his contentious role in the Eastern Mediterranean.
As vice-president, Biden often angered the Turkish government by highlighting its clampdown on free expression and voicing support for Kurdish nationalist movements that Erdogan branded as “terrorist” groups and worked tirelessly to squash.
In 2014, Biden even sparked a diplomatic row between the US and Turkey when he publicly suggested that Ankara had helped facilitate the rise of ISIS in Syria (comments he later apologised for.)
While the presumptive Democratic nominee has since been more cautious, he has nevertheless continued to be a thorn in Erdogan’s side, pushing for more aggressive US action to tame Turkey’s ambitions at home and in the region.
A new polemic has erupted in recent days over an interview Biden gave with the New York Times editorial board nine months ago during which he described the Turkish leader as an “autocrat” and said the US should support Turkish “opposition leadership” in their bid to defeat him.
“I’m still of the view that if we were to engage more directly like I was doing with them, that we can support those elements of the Turkish leadership that still exist and get more from them and embolden them to be able to take on and defeat Erdogan,” Biden told the reporters in November 2019. “Not by a coup, not by a coup, but by the electoral process.”
Predictably, Biden’s remarks drew furious backlash from the Turkish political establishment at the time, and they are coming under further scrutiny as the US election draws nearer.
On Sunday, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin issued a harsh rebuke of the former vice-president’s remarks, writing on Twitter that Biden’s analysis of Turkey “was based on pure ignorance, arrogance and hypocrisy” and that “the days of ordering Turkey around are over.”
“If you still think you can try, be our guest. You will pay the price,” Kalin wrote.
Turkish government-controlled media also honed in on Biden’s remarks, warning that they “obviously do not portend sunny skies for Turkish-American relations in the event he is elected President.”
“Such overtly hostile comments towards Turkey’s democratically elected leadership creates questions about Biden’s knowledge and his capacity to make intelligent judgements on key issues,” Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency said.
While there are a range of reasons Turkey would be loath to see a Biden presidency, his firm support for the Kurds, both inside and outside Turkey, is Ankara’s greatest concern, argues foreign affairs writer Bobby Ghosh.
“It is the Democratic candidate’s longstanding sympathy for the Kurds, in Iraq and Syria, that will cause Ankara the greatest anxiety, should he become president,” wrote Ghosh in Bloomberg. “…An American president sympathetic to Kurdish nationalism would represent a serious headache not only for Turkey, but for all countries with Kurdish minorities, such as Iraq, Syria and Iran.”
Trump, who has fostered relatively warm ties with Ankara during his time in office, has exploited the discord between Ankara and his Democratic rival ahead of a tough November election, recently suggesting that Biden would likely be outmatched as president by strong foreign leaders such as Erdogan.
“Let’s face it, Joe’s shot,” Trump said during a Fox News interview on Monday. “You’re dealing with people that are very sharp. You’re dealing with world-class chess players in the leaders of these countries. I know them all. We do very well with all of them,” he added, singling out Erdogan.
While Trump’s popularity has taken a hit due to the US’s coronavirus crisis and economic downturn, he has gained some ground in recent months and is taking steps to prevent mail-in voting options that are likely to favour Biden.
Biden currently leads Trump by some 4% of registered voters nationwide, according to a recent CNN poll, and holds a narrow advantage in key battleground states that will likely decide the election.
If Biden wins the presidency, Turkey would likely face greater US pressure, but it remains to be seen how far the former vice-president would go to realise the foreign policy vision he has long advocated.
Stephen Quillen is an Arab Weekly correspondent in Tunis.
Copyright ©2020 The Arab Weekly — distributed by Agence Global
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Released: 19 August 2020
Word Count: 796
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