BEIRUT — Does Arab public opinion matter? The prevalent reply for decades has been that angry Arabs don’t have much political impact on the prevailing regional order, Israel’s security, or American and other Western interests. Events this month suggest that this perception should be revised and updated.
In particular, we should heed important new sentiments expressed by two very opposite poles in Arab society — Saudi royalty, and Lebanese civilians under fire — whose attitudes reflect significant changes in the foundations of the modern Arab political order.
Arab public opinion is more angry, energized and radical this month, in the face of four parallel things that ordinary Arabs see happening in Lebanon and Israel. First is Israel’s savage attack against all of Lebanon, and not only Hizbullah and its Shiite-dominated heartland in the south, aiming to virtually destroy a country that was the pride of all Arabs. Second is Hizbullah’s strong resistance and capacity to counter-attack, two weeks into the fighting, including sending a third of the Israeli population into bomb shelters for days on end. Third is the passive role of other Arab governments, some of which (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) initially criticized Hizbullah for kidnapping two Israeli soldiers on July 12. Fourth is the widespread sense among Arabs, and most other people around the world, that the United States not only goes along with Israel’s attack, but also actively prods and supplies it with armaments, fuel and diplomatic protection.
Many Western analysts — especially Americans — tend to discuss the Arab world in the vocabulary and dynamics of the 1960s, when angry street demonstrators and wily colonels routinely overthrew incumbent regimes. But the nature and impact of mass Arab political anger have changed radically in recent decades. Since the late 1980s, angry Arabs have not bothered much with street demonstrations or attempting coups against the prevailing Arab political order that is seen to be subservient to the United States and acquiescent to Israeli dictates. Instead, ordinary Arabs have done something far more significant, which is just now rearing its head across the region: they have simply de-legitimized their Arab regimes and political order, and left them behind.
Arab public opinion in many places has built a parallel, more credible, order that is based on the twin pillars of resistance and affirmation, in the twin contexts of Arabism and Islamism. Hizbullah and Hamas are its two most dramatic expressions, and social and political Islamism its more widespread foundation in society.
The four simultaneous dynamics evident in this month’s Lebanon-Israel fighting capture this process better than anything else we’ve seen in recent years, even better than the Islamists’ many electoral victories around the region. Public opinion around the Arab world has reacted by strongly supporting Hizbullah and Lebanon, in the first significant clash between the forces of Islamo-Arabist resistance (also supported by Iran) and the American-Israeli combine (supported by a few Arab regimes and elites).
Two important markers of Arab public opinion emerged this week. The first is the Saudi Arabian royal court statement issued Wednesday warning against the “grave and unpredictable consequences” of the continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon. It simultaneously appealed to and warned the international community — with the USA singled out by name — that if the Arab offer to live in peace with Israel fell victim to Israel “arrogance,” only the war option remains. For the normally discreet, patient and peaceful Saudis to issue such a statement is about as strong a signal as we are ever likely to get of elite Arab concern about the consequences of the current mood among Arab publics.
The second important marker is a national public opinion poll of Lebanese, conducted this week by the respected Beirut Center for Research and Information with Lebanese American University assistant professor of political science Dr. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, measuring public attitudes to the current situation. The striking results showed 87 percent of all Lebanese support the Hizbullah resistance’s military response to the Israeli attacks (including, notably, 89 percent of Sunnis and 80 percent of Christians). And 89 percent of respondents said the United States was not an honest broker and did not respond positively to Lebanon’s concerns. Five months ago, just 58 percent supported the resistance movement’s right to remain armed.
When I asked Dr. Saad-Ghorayeb what she made of these results, she mentioned three key points: Support for Hizbullah is strong nationally across all groups, as the threat from Israel has been revived for all Lebanese, and will not diminish quickly. Strong Sunni support for the resistance and criticism of the United States suggests a revival of a sense of Arabism among many in Lebanon. And a large majority of Lebanese has lost faith in the United States, and may feel that Washington’s support for Lebanon during the past 18 months has been an insincere and expedient ruse designed to achieve America’s regional goals, rather than promote Lebanon’s well-being.
“This has gone beyond simply a sense of bias in America’s policies,” she said, “to the point where the Lebanese feel they have been used by Washington primarily to hurt Iran. Many feel that Washington’s desire to bring freedom to Lebanon has been the kiss of death, following in the wake of similar American approaches to Afghanistan, Palestine, and Iraq.”
Lebanon was the ripe apple that Washington’s drive for Arab democracy should have harvested effortlessly. Instead, today the Lebanese mistrust the United States, and the Saudi royal family publicly warns it about war in the region. The majority of Arabs ignore their regimes, and applaud or support those who actively resist Anglo-American-Israeli aggressions. The face of Arab public opinion will continue to change in these directions, until legitimate grievances are redressed and ordinary people throughout the Arab world feel they are treated like dignified human beings, rather than disposable animals.
Rami G. Khouri is editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star, published throughout the Middle East with the International Herald Tribune.
Copyright ©2006 Rami G. Khouri / Agence Global
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Released: 28 July 2006
Word Count: 960
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