NEW YORK — The center of gravity of the discussion on Iraq has shifted dramatically in the past two months, from the mess the Americans created to the mess the Iraqis must deal with. Change and transition are in the air in the U.S. and Iraq, as the Bush administration grasps that most Iraqis and Arabs, and now most Americans, want a clear plan for the U.S. to withdraw its troops from Iraq.
The two most visible changes within the United States that a visitor witnesses are the altered nature of President George Bush’s rhetoric, and the prevalent expectation that the U.S. will start withdrawing some of its troops in the coming months.
Behind the dizzying political rhetoric in the U.S. and Iraq lies the one dynamic that overrides all others: Will this week’s election usher in a legitimate Iraqi political government and parliament, replacing what is seen as an illegitimate American military occupation and political administration?
In four speeches he gave in recent weeks, two of which I watched on television in the United States during a short visit, President Bush has adopted a slightly more humble and realistic tone, while insisting that American troops will remain until the day of an imprecisely defined “victory”. He seemed unconvincing, repeating old arguments that most Americans no longer find credible, according to opinion polls.
But this rhetorical onslaught is less important than developments on the ground in Iraq, where this week’s parliamentary elections may usher in an important transitional phase in which we might finally witness the transfer of genuine power from American troops to Iraqi politicians. Much debate will continue about whether the elections Thursday were legitimate or not, and whether the new Iraqi parliament and government, with the growing national army and police system, will be able to restore stability and security throughout the country. In the coming months, Iraqis themselves will answer these questions, but they only do so if they are free of American political and ideological tutelage.
The most important and urgent task at hand now is to speed up the creation of a stable national government and governance system that Iraqis themselves judge to be legitimate and representative. Elections can be a significant starting point for this, but only a fully sovereign, independent and credible Iraqi government can move quickly on improving security and bringing normalcy back into the lives of most citizens.
The fastest way to move towards that goal would be for the United States to announce that it is starting its military withdrawal from Iraq and does not intend to maintain long-term bases there. As long as American troops and political meddling define Iraqi politics, any new Iraqi government — even elected by the people — will be seen as a puppet regime. It would remain a target of Iraqi skepticism as well as armed resistance by Iraqis and other foreign militants.
Starting the American military retreat from Iraq is important because American troops in Iraq will continue to be a divisive and destabilizing force, just as the American military presence in Saudi Arabia after the 1991 war was a major provocation of Osama Bin Laden-style resistance and terror. Washington could link the speed of its withdrawal to how fast Iraqis generate a credible political and security system, but should give 18 months as a target date for leaving the country. Such a strategy would have a good chance of impacting quickly and positively on several crucial dimensions of Iraq today.
It would show Iraqis that that they can soon anticipate the benefits of both national sovereignty and a politically legitimate government that is neither protected nor choreographed by American vice-consuls. It would also spur Iraqis to reach faster agreement on key constitutional and power-sharing issues that remain undefined to the satisfaction of all. A legitimate Iraqi government can do that which the mighty American army could not: mobilize the popular will necessary to restore day-to-day security and stop attacks against infrastructural facilities such as oil, electricity and water networks.
The American experiment in Iraq unfortunately has accelerated the retribalization of the country. The former sense of Iraqi citizenship has been replaced by a growing allegiance to sect and tribe – Sunni, Shia, Christian, Kurdish, Turkmen — as the units that define the citizen. An American military and political exit would help to slow down or even reverse this national fragmentation into ethnic and religious subgroups, most of which also have armed militias.
America’s adventure in Iraq has generated fear and meddling by neighbors like Syria, Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, some of whom find the U.S. in Iraq an easy target. A military withdrawal ideally would instead engage the neighbors’ cooperation in working for stability and cohesion in Iraq, and also perhaps forging regional security arrangements, including, ideally, improving ties with Syria and Iran.
Similarly, a sovereign Iraq free of American troops would have a better chance of attracting the vital Arab and international assistance that has shunned the country for fear of being associated with the controversial American presence. At the same time, American troops leaving Iraq would take the wind out of those insurgents and terrorists who are motivated primarily by liberating this part of the Islamic realm from foreign dominance.
It’s hard to think of a single act that would generate as much positive hope for Iraqis during their current delicate transition to sovereignty and normalcy as the announcement of the start of an American military withdrawal. If the anticipated good things happen as I have envisaged them above, George Bush could also proclaim mission accomplished. Once again.
Rami G. Khouri is editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star newspaper, published throughout the Middle East with the International Herald Tribune.
Copyright ©2005 Rami G. Khouri
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Released: 17 December 2005
Word Count: 929
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