BEIRUT — In a continuation of the classic political style of his late father, Syrian President Bashar Assad Saturday responded to intense local, regional and global pressures to get out of Lebanon with a dazzling combination of vague pledges, strong principles, positive promises, veiled threats, steadfast diplomatic engagement and hard-headed unilateral commitments. This vintage Syrian political performance is likely to confuse and anger the enemy, rally some fresh support, increase the pressures on and isolation of his government, and win only a little more time before Damascus¹ moment of reckoning is at hand.
The net balance sheet, though, is clear: Syria has finally started to understand the intensity and specificity of the Lebanese and international diplomatic demands that it must start withdrawing its 14,000 troops and plainclothes security personnel from Lebanon.
Damascus has faced a sustained popular rebellion in Lebanon following the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri three weeks ago, and a rising crescendo of American-European diplomatic pressure to quit Lebanon immediately. In response, Assad pledged to withdraw Syrian troops completely to the eastern Lebanese-Syrian border region, and to hold Syrian-Lebanese Higher Committee meetings to agree further moves, including, presumably, a complete withdrawal into Syria.
His combination of precision and ambiguity was dizzying: Syria has no objections to withdrawing from Lebanon and has already reduced its troops there from 40,000 to 14,000 in recent years, but it will not withdraw fully in haste and leave behind a security vacuum that could jeopardize both Lebanon and Syria. Syria would withdraw completely, but not outside Lebanon, only to the border region adjacent to Syria. He did not mention the security personnel that have been repeatedly singled out by President Bush and other foreign critics of Syria¹s presence in Lebanon. He said Syria has always replied that it will deal ³positively² with UN Security Council resolution 1559 of September last year, requiring the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon — but he wanted clarifications on 1559¹s relationship with Lebanon¹s stability and sovereignty, and its links with the 1989 pan-Arab Taif Accord that ended the Lebanese civil war and reaffirmed the legitimacy of Syria¹s troop presence in Lebanon.
The Taif accord also specifies that a Syrian-Lebanese Higher Committee will meet regularly to agree on the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon when security conditions permit. Lebanese opposition groups have said for a decade now that Syria should leave Lebanon to rule itself; this demand skyrocketed after the Hariri murder, which many Lebanese directly or indirectly blamed on Syria.
Literally within just minutes of the speech, thanks to competitive Lebanese and Arab satellite television services, Lebanese opposition figures leading the political assault on Syria issued a very wide range of contradictory reactions to Assad¹s pledge to redeploy his troops in the border region — from cautious optimism and quiet satisfaction, to a sense of being insulted and toyed with. The opposition leaders were meeting late Saturday night and would issue a statement in due course.
One impact of the Assad speech is already clear: some of the divergences among the opposition groups and foreign countries pressuring Syria will now become more obvious, and might temporarily ease some of the pressure that has built up on Syria in recent weeks and months.
The U.S., France and other Western powers that have pressured Syria bilaterally and through the UN are likely to reject the vagueness of the Assad pledges and demand a full and immediate withdrawal. They, along with many Lebanese, will now wait to see if the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Committee meeting next week leads to a more complete, clear and speedy Syrian commitment to withdraw.
The Arab summit meeting in Algiers in two weeks is also likely to provide Syria with a bit more time to maneuver out of its isolated diplomatic spot, as well as political cover to speed up its withdrawal from Lebanon — given that an Arab League summit 30 years ago provided the initial mandate for Syria to move into the neighboring country.
Assad¹s speech should be seen as the first salvo in the counter-campaign against the movement to quickly force Syria out of Lebanon. Yet given the intensity and global scope of the pressures to remove Syrian forces from Lebanon, Saturday¹s speech will only gain a little time for Damascus, while the final Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon finally gets underway, using the Taif Accord terms and perhaps a renewed Arab Summit agreement as legitimate political cover for the move.
Rami G. Khouri is editor-at-large of the Beirut-based Daily Star newspaper, published throughout the Middle East with the International Herald Tribune.
Copyright @2005 Rami G. Khouri
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Released: 05 March 2005
Word Count: 738 words
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